美联储“鹰派暂停” 国际黄金上演闪崩行情

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant volatility, with a recent drop from near $5600 to around $5230, influenced by market sentiment and external economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early 2026, gold prices have surged, with a nearly 30% increase in January alone, and over 10% in the past week, leading to a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying pattern [2]. - The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for gold reached above 90, indicating signs of market bubble [2]. - As gold approached historical highs, profit-taking by institutional investors, particularly hedge funds, triggered a rapid sell-off due to low liquidity at high price levels [2]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chairman Powell hinting at potential future rate cuts, yet current real interest rates continue to constrain gold prices [2]. - Investors began questioning the rationality of gold's safe-haven premium as its price increase outpaced fundamental support, leading to further selling pressure [2]. Group 3: Trading Conditions - Major exchanges, including the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, raised gold margin requirements, increasing financial pressure on leveraged traders, particularly short-term bulls [2]. - The resulting price drop triggered a vicious cycle of forced liquidations, exacerbating the decline in gold prices [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The international gold price remains biased towards upward movement, but failure to close above the January 28 high of $5415/oz may lead to a consolidation phase [4]. - The RSI indicates a weakening bullish momentum, having retreated from extreme overbought levels, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers [4]. - If gold maintains above $5300/oz, it may consolidate within the $5300-$5400 range, with potential to reach $5500/oz or even $5598/oz if the upper boundary is breached [4]. Conversely, a drop below $5300/oz could lead to further declines towards $5200/oz or lower [4].