长江有色：锌估值补涨叠加供紧支撑 30日锌价或续涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the continuous decline in US dollar credit, coupled with speculative capital inflows, has led to a six-day rise in London zinc prices, with a 2.3% increase [1][2] - The overnight London zinc price opened at $3,396 per ton, peaked at $3,575.5, and closed at $3,453, marking a $77 increase and a 2.30% rise, with trading volume increasing significantly [1] - The macroeconomic environment shows persistent geopolitical risk premiums driving demand for physical assets, while expectations of a potential dovish shift in US monetary policy could further support commodity prices [1][2] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, domestic refined zinc exports are replenishing overseas inventories, and the LME premium has significantly decreased, indicating a reduction in the divergence between domestic and international markets [2] - Despite a cyclical increase in global zinc supply, the transmission of increased mining output to smelting capacity is slowing due to reductions in overseas smelting operations, leading to a forecast of continued low smelting profits until 2026 [2] - Overall, the combination of a declining dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, geopolitical risk premiums, and sustained demand for quality metal assets supports the outlook for continued increases in zinc prices [2]