崔东树：2025年汽车报废转出量为1319万辆 更新升级或成车市重要增长动力

Core Insights - The automotive market in China is projected to see significant growth, with estimated vehicle sales reaching 26.19 million units in 2025, driven by a robust increase in the scrappage and renewal policy, which is expected to result in 13.19 million vehicles being scrapped, up from 9.9 million in the previous year [1][3][5] Vehicle Registration and Ownership - By the end of 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China is expected to reach 469 million, with 366 million being cars. The number of motor vehicle drivers is projected to be 559 million, with 525 million being car drivers [2][3] - The new vehicle registration for 2025 is estimated at 35.35 million units, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% compared to the previous year [2][3] Used Car Market Growth - The used car market is showing strong potential, with the number of used car transactions exceeding new car registrations for six consecutive years. In 2025, the number of used car transfer registrations is expected to reach 41.11 million, with 38.41 million being cars [5][6] - The growth rate of used car transactions is significant, with a 9.7% increase in 2025 compared to the previous year [4][5] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Growth - The number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is projected to reach 43.97 million by the end of 2025, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership. The new registration of NEVs is expected to be 12.93 million, representing a 14.93% increase from the previous year [8][9] - The growth rate of NEVs is impressive, with a 40% increase in ownership from the previous year [7][8] Scrappage and Renewal Dynamics - The scrappage of vehicles is expected to accelerate, with 360,000 NEVs projected to be scrapped in 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's figures. This trend indicates a growing market for vehicle upgrades and replacements [9][10] - The overall scrappage scale is anticipated to increase substantially in the coming years, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards vehicle renewal [10] Urban Vehicle Ownership Trends - The number of cities in China with over one million vehicles has increased to 103, with significant growth in cities like Chengdu and Chongqing, which are not subject to purchase restrictions [11][12] - The vehicle ownership in major cities is rising rapidly, with projections indicating that cities with over five million vehicles will continue to expand, driven by population influx and urbanization [14][15] Driver Demographics - By the end of 2025, the number of motor vehicle drivers is expected to reach 559 million, with car drivers making up 93.87% of this total. The number of new driving licenses issued in 2025 is projected to be 20.51 million [15][16] - The potential for growth in the number of car drivers remains significant, with expectations that the total could reach 600 million in the future [16]