近期锡价严重脱离基本面 预计短期盘面宽幅调整

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a decline in futures prices, with the main contract dropping significantly by 5.34% to 422,010.00 CNY/ton as of January 30 [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - As of January 23, 2026, the national social inventory of tin ingots in major markets reached 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous week [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 6,895 tons, with 200 tons canceled, remaining unchanged, and total tin inventory increasing by 35 tons to 7,095 tons [2] - Tin concentrate processing fees have been raised to 1,850 CNY/ton, with Yunnan's 40% tin concentrate and Jiangxi's 60% tin concentrate processing fees reaching 14,050 CNY/ton and 10,250 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. Senate voting on funding bills and positive outcomes from UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China [3] - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports in the first quarter, alleviating the tight supply situation [3] - The smelting sector is facing low raw material inventories, with many companies operating at a loss, and production is expected to face pressure to increase after the New Year [3] - Demand from the AI sector is anticipated to significantly boost solder demand, while recent price increases have led to stable inventory levels and a current spot premium of 500 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Recommendations - Newhu Futures notes that tin prices have diverged significantly from the fundamentals, with many downstream companies reducing or halting production [4] - The supply side remains stable, with an increase in tin concentrate supply, while overall inventory levels are not high [4] - The current market is driven by macroeconomic sentiment, with rising precious metal prices influencing tin prices; short-term price movements may be upward, and a cautious approach is recommended for high-price chasing [4]