2026年A股王炸开局！关注哪些绩优方向？科创芯片三大投资逻辑全面解析！

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend in 2026, shifting from a liquidity-driven market in 2025 to a focus on high-performing companies, with improved corporate earnings expected to be the core support for the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current preference for the AI chip and memory chip sectors, exemplified by the ETF Huatai (588750), is driven by the anticipated improvement in corporate earnings [1] - Historical data suggests that industries with sustained recovery during earnings forecast periods typically yield excess returns, with the current recovery signals concentrated in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and AI chains [1] Group 2: Chip Sector Dynamics - The AI wave is creating significant opportunities in the industry chain, leading to a structural reconfiguration in the storage chip market, characterized by a super cycle of price increases driven by AI demand [3] - The storage chip market is expected to remain in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with global storage chip prices projected to rise by 30% to 40% in Q1 2026 [3][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Forecast - For 2026, the supply growth for DRAM is estimated at 15% to 20%, while demand growth is projected at 20% to 25%. For NAND, supply growth is expected to be 13% to 18%, with demand growth at 18% to 23% [5] - Specific price increase predictions for storage products include over 40% for DDR5 RDIMM memory and 20% to 30% for enterprise-grade SSDs [5] Group 4: AI and Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially as AI transitions from training to large-scale inference, leading to a supply shortage in CPU/GPU/DCU chips [6] - Major chip manufacturers are planning to raise prices by 10% to 15% due to the extreme supply-demand imbalance caused by surging AI demand [6] Group 5: Domestic Innovation and Policy Support - The push for domestic innovation and replacement in the chip sector is gaining momentum due to escalating external restrictions and surging internal demand, supported by top-level design and policy funding [7] - The new five-year plan emphasizes the need for self-reliance in technology, with a focus on chip autonomy as a critical infrastructure for AI development [7]