金价高位急挫、长端美债遭集中抛售，美联储主席人选传闻扰动市场

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching historical highs, influenced by potential hawkish Federal Reserve chair nominations, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and increased long-term bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell by over 5% during trading, with spot gold down 3.9% to $5,183.21 per ounce, following a previous high of $5,594.82 [2]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 20%, potentially marking its sixth consecutive month of gains, the strongest monthly performance since January 1980 [2]. - The market is highly sensitive to any news that could alter interest rate or dollar expectations, particularly regarding the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - Analysts suggest that if Warsh is nominated, it could reinforce expectations of Federal Reserve independence and a lack of drastic policy shifts, which would be bullish for the dollar [2]. - The potential for a less dovish Federal Reserve chair has contributed to the recent decline in gold prices, as the market adjusts to the new expectations [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - Long-term US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure, with the 30-year yield rising over 5 basis points to 4.91%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 4.2 basis points to 4.23% [4]. - Concerns are growing that a new Fed chair could lead to a reduction in the central bank's balance sheet, diminishing its support for the long-term bond market [4]. Group 4: Currency and Other Precious Metals - The US dollar has rebounded from multi-year lows, adding further pressure on gold prices as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold priced in dollars, reducing overseas demand [5]. - Silver prices dropped 5.7% to $109.55 per ounce, despite a monthly gain of 56%, while platinum fell 5.3% to $2,489.31, and palladium rose 5.8% to $1,890.25 [5]. - Swiss customs data indicated a surge in gold exports to the UK, the highest level since August 2019, signaling potential high-level profit-taking and increased physical market activity [5].