库存处于历史同期高位 豆粕期货仍将延续筑底

Group 1 - The USDA reported that for the week ending January 22, 2026, the net sales of U.S. soybean meal for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 464,300 tons, a 13% increase from the previous week and an 82% increase from the four-week average [1] - Brazil's soybean exports are projected to be 1.89245 million tons for the period of January 25-31, up from 267,640 tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 531,710 tons, an increase from 302,410 tons [1] Group 2 - Brazil's early soybean harvest is underway, with expected production around 180 million tons, setting a new historical record, despite rain delays in harvesting [2] - Argentina's soybean production faces downward adjustment risks due to high temperatures and drought conditions [2] - The U.S. government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, likely abandoning punitive measures on renewable fuel and feedstock imports, which may support soybean prices [2] - Domestic soybean supply is currently ample due to increased imports last year, with soybean and soybean meal inventories at historical highs [2] - Short-term market dynamics lack strong upward drivers, but protein meal prices have reached absolute lows, limiting further downside potential [2] - The domestic supply of imported soybeans is robust, with strong downstream stocking demand supporting soybean meal prices, while long-term trends suggest a continued bottoming out [3]