Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Sands China (01928) slightly missed expectations for Q4 performance, with adjusted EBITDA rising 1% quarter-on-quarter to $608 million, below market expectations of $610 million to $640 million [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 is $608 million, which is a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter but lower than market expectations [1] - If the VIP room win rate is adjusted from 3.9% to the theoretical value of 3.3%, EBITDA would decrease by $26 million to $582 million, representing a 3% quarter-on-quarter decline or a 2% year-on-year increase [1] Future Outlook - Management remains relatively optimistic about the outlook for the Macau gaming industry and does not believe that the World Cup will significantly impact total gaming revenue [1] - EBITDA margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 31% and 31.4%, respectively, with property EBITDA projected at $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, approaching the company's mid-term target of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion but below the $3 billion level of 2019 [1] Adjustments and Target Price - Due to lower EBITDA margins, Goldman Sachs has reduced its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 4% to 5% and lowered the target price from HKD 24.2 to HKD 23.2 [1] - The company is expected to continue increasing dividends in the coming years, as there are no major capital expenditures anticipated [1]
高盛：微降金沙中国(01928)目标价至23.2港元 第四季业绩略逊预期