Crude Prices Supported by Iran Tensions

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced significant increases, with crude oil reaching a 4-month high and gasoline a 2-month high, driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory reports [2][3] Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed up by $0.82 (+1.31%) and March RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0215 (+1.14%) [1] Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's threats of military action against Iran unless a nuclear deal is negotiated have contributed to the rise in crude oil prices, as potential conflict could disrupt oil supplies from Iran [2][3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, further supporting oil prices [4] Inventory Reports - The weekly EIA report indicated an unexpected decline in crude inventories, while gasoline supplies increased less than anticipated, providing additional support for crude prices [2] Production Estimates - The IEA revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.815 million bpd, indicating tighter future supply conditions [5] - The EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, while cutting the energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion BTU [5] OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ confirmed its decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026, following a previous announcement to raise production by 137,000 bpd in December 2025 [7] - OPEC's December crude production rose by 40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd, reflecting ongoing adjustments to manage supply [7]