政策+经济双轮驱动周期行业 民生加银芮定坤布局三大核心赛道

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with favorable policies and market conditions for the cyclical sector, driven by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and increased infrastructure special bonds [1] - The domestic economic recovery is confirmed, with all three PMI indices returning to the expansion zone by December 2025, and the IMF raising China's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.5%, presenting opportunities for both fundamental and valuation recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - The cyclical industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, with strong growth momentum in key sectors, such as a forecast of 120GW of new wind power installations in China for 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in transformer exports in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Global liquidity remains accommodative, benefiting the financial attributes of commodities, with expectations of continued easing in 2026, supported by supply-side reforms and structural upgrades in China [2] - The long-term backdrop of Sino-US competition is driving up the valuation system for resource products, with the "self-sufficient" strategy boosting demand for bulk commodities and contributing to long-term price support [2] - The focus is on three main directions: resources, overseas electricity shortages (electric power equipment), and chemical industry anti-involution, with optimism regarding market opportunities benefiting from improved liquidity and valuation shifts in January [2] Group 3 - The fund manager has extensive experience in the cyclical sector, achieving significant performance with the funds managed, including a 71.86% net value growth rate for the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A in the past year, outperforming the benchmark [3] - Over longer periods, the Minsheng Jianyin Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A and the Minsheng Jianyin Urbanization Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund A have consistently ranked in the top third of their category [3]