智通财经网·2026-01-30 07:47Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that since Q3 2025, the preference for the banking sector has remained relatively low, with recent passive fund outflows causing disturbances in the banking sector's funding environment. It is expected that the redemption outflow space will narrow, opening a low-valuation configuration window for banks [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market style has shifted, with active funds continuing to underweight the banking sector, maintaining a low preference level. As of Q4 2025, the total market value of active funds' holdings in banks was 30.545 billion yuan, accounting for 1.88%, a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, yet still at a near five-year low. The underweight ratio expanded to 8.88%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. - Since Q3 2025, there has been a notable rotation in market sectors, with active funds favoring sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, and non-bank financials, which saw increases in holdings of 2.07 percentage points, 1.89 percentage points, and 1.03 percentage points respectively. In contrast, the banking sector experienced a decline of 7.68% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Impact - The recent adjustment in the banking sector is primarily attributed to passive fund outflows, with net outflows from stock ETFs reaching 757.99 billion yuan in January 2026. The estimated net outflow from the banking sector due to these redemptions is approximately 83.14 billion yuan [2]. - The largest four CSI 300 ETFs have seen their market shares drop below the top ten holders' shares from the first half of 2025, with an average reduction of about 43%. Although selling pressure remains, the narrowing of redemption outflow space is expected to lessen its impact on the banking sector [2]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - The influence of long-term funds on the pricing of the banking sector is becoming more pronounced, with the impact of both active and passive public funds diminishing. Long-term funds, such as insurance capital, are expected to stabilize and potentially elevate the valuation of the banking sector, creating opportunities for rebound [3]. - The average dividend yield for A-share banks is currently 4.62%, maintaining its attractiveness for long-term investors. The expectation of steady credit growth and improved liability cost optimization is likely to support a narrowing of interest margin declines, enhancing the outlook for the banking sector [3]. - Historically, the proportion of northbound funds in the banking sector tends to increase in Q1 compared to Q4 of the previous year, with an average increase of 1.07 percentage points over the past five years, excluding 2023. Certain joint-stock banks are expected to benefit more from this increased foreign allocation [3].