This top stock picker spotted Nvidia and GLP-1s early — and made over 200%. Here’s what he’s buying now.

Investment Philosophy - The investment approach of Van Geelen is inspired by George Soros's concept of reflexivity, emphasizing that narratives drive capital movements and can change reality [2] - Van Geelen's firm, Citrini Research, focuses on identifying stories that will influence capital flows before the market recognizes them [3][4] Performance and Strategy - Van Geelen's portfolio has increased by over 200% since May 2023, with successful trades including cheap Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) call options that yielded a 46x return [6] - He published a memo on Venezuelan sovereign bonds, predicting regime change, which materialized shortly after [7] Investment Opportunities 1. Molina Healthcare - Molina Healthcare operates with the lowest expense ratio in Medicaid, around 7%, and is positioned to benefit from potential margin recovery due to political gridlock [10][11] - The stock has declined by 40% over the past year, but Van Geelen projects significant earnings per share (EPS) growth based on expected margin improvements [12][14] 2. WPP - WPP is currently undervalued, trading at 0.2 times sales, as the market anticipates its extinction due to AI advancements [16] - The company has the potential to reduce its workforce significantly while maintaining revenue, indicating a turnaround opportunity [17] 3. Choice Hotels - With the upcoming 2026 World Cup in the U.S., Choice Hotels is expected to benefit from increased demand for budget accommodations [18][20] - The investment thesis is based on the certainty of millions of soccer fans needing hotel rooms, making it a straightforward opportunity [19] 4. Tax-refund Beneficiaries - Tax refunds for Americans in early 2026 are projected to be 30% to 50% larger than normal due to changes in the tax code, benefiting middle-income households [21][22] - Companies like Somnigroup International, Whirlpool, and Lithia Motors are positioned to capitalize on increased consumer spending from these refunds [23] Market Insights - Van Geelen emphasizes the importance of recognizing current realities rather than attempting to predict future events, highlighting that the World Cup and tax code changes are already established facts [24]