Bitcoin Is Bouncing – But These 3 Metrics Decide If the Bull Market Is Returning

Market Overview - Bitcoin has rebounded to the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 area after a temporary fall to the mid-$80,000s, relieving short-term downside pressure [1] - Currently trading around $89,500, Bitcoin is up about 1.4% over the past 24 hours but is down more than 7% over the last 14 days, remaining nearly 13% lower year to date and about 29% below its all-time high [2] Long-Term Trend Analysis - Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key long-term metric indicating structural bull markets when above this level [3] - The 200-day EMA is trending up, suggesting that long-term demand remains intact and recent price retreats are corrective rather than indicative of a reversal [4] Institutional Demand Insights - Since October 2025, ETF holdings have decreased by over $6 billion, an 8% decline from peak levels, indicating cautious demand from institutional investors [5] - Bitcoin is currently hovering near the ETF realized price of approximately $86,600, which is the average cost basis for ETF buyers, marking a psychological pivot for market sentiment [6] - While outflows have softened and ETF realized prices have stabilized, inflows have not returned in a sustained manner, leaving institutional demand cautious rather than decisively risk-on [6] Short-Term Holder Behavior - The on-chain cost basis for recent Bitcoin buyers is a critical metric, reflecting the behavior of short-term holders as Bitcoin tests key price levels [7]