如何解读近期部分城市二手房市场回暖的现象？重阳投资：背后原因是春节前供需两端同时催化结果

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in certain cities has shown signs of recovery since the beginning of the year, with significant declines in the number of listings, particularly in Shanghai, where listings have dropped by over 20% from peak levels. Additionally, transaction volumes and prices have improved, with a more than 20% year-on-year increase in real-time transaction volumes across 26 cities compared to December of the previous year [1][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The improvement in the second-hand housing market is attributed to simultaneous catalysts on both the supply and demand sides before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, the decline in listings is partly seasonal, as sellers typically withdraw listings before the holiday, and also due to a rapid decline in prices in the latter half of the previous year, prompting some homeowners to withdraw listings to protect prices or switch to rental [2][6]. - On the demand side, the acceleration in demand for school district properties has been observed, as requirements for school enrollment need to be confirmed by March or April. Additionally, since November of the previous year, there has been a notable increase in the transaction speed of lower-priced properties, with properties priced at 3 million in Shanghai making up over 50% of transactions, indicating a quicker entry of first-time buyers into the market [2][6]. Group 2: Price Stability and Market Sentiment - The ability of second-hand housing prices to stabilize will depend on the sustainability of the decline in listings. Experts from major cities believe that listings will rebound after the Spring Festival, making the extent and duration of this rebound a critical factor in determining whether prices can stabilize [3][7]. - Optimistically, the period of rapid price declines may be coming to an end. The current market recovery is characterized by a lack of explicit policy intervention, with the market self-adjusting, particularly through the rapid turnover of lower-priced properties. This suggests that genuine demand is gradually being stimulated, with first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes actively participating in the market, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [3][7].