Benzinga·2026-01-30 08:19Core Viewpoint - The investment thesis emphasizes Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. as the leading companies in the physical AI market, which is seen as a critical component of the fourth industrial revolution [1][2]. Tesla Inc. - Tesla's focus has shifted from vehicle delivery to high-margin software adoption, particularly through Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, which is expected to increase adoption from 12% to 50% [4]. - A base case valuation of $600 and a bullish case of $800 are projected, driven by the margin story associated with FSD [4]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant transition year, leading into a "golden year" in 2026, influenced by advancements in FSD, autonomous Cybercabs, and robotics [5]. Nvidia Corp. - Nvidia is viewed as the foundational provider of hardware essential for autonomous systems and industrial robotics, positioning it as a leader in the AI infrastructure market [6]. - The company is considered to be four to five years ahead of competitors in the chip industry, making it a primary beneficiary of the current capital expenditure surge in the tech sector [6]. Energy Constraints - The primary constraint in the AI arms race is identified as energy shortages rather than capital or technology [7][8]. - There is a notable increase in data centers under construction, which is straining the energy grid, necessitating vertical integration strategies such as custom cooling and on-site energy generation to address the power crunch [7]. Price Action - As of 2026, Tesla shares have decreased by 4.91%, but have shown a 30.57% increase over the last six months and a 4.07% increase over the year [10]. - Nvidia shares have increased by 1.94% year-to-date, with a 7.39% rise in six months and a 54.44% increase over the year, indicating a stronger price trend compared to Tesla [10][11].