港股不再只是“捡便宜”，国海富兰克林徐成：看重性价比，更看重长期盈利确定性

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has transitioned from a phase dominated by sentiment-driven adjustments to a more rational valuation phase supported by policy and earnings recovery, with a focus on profitability, dividends, and industry structure rather than just being "cheap" [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a stark contrast between high-dividend, strong cash flow assets and growth-oriented sectors influenced by global liquidity and thematic sentiment [1][3] - The global AI wave is reshaping capital flows and industry structures, with competition intensifying around computing power, algorithms, and application scenarios [1][7] - Institutional investors are increasingly focused on reassessing the cost-effectiveness of Hong Kong and Asian assets along the AI industry chain as valuations are no longer at extreme lows [1][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes understanding macroeconomic conditions, corporate competitiveness, and earnings volatility rather than solely relying on low valuations [3][10] - The focus has shifted from "valuation recovery" to identifying companies with potential earnings improvement in a gradually recovering macro environment [3][10] - The investment approach is characterized by a balance between high-dividend and high-growth sectors, allowing for dynamic switching between different styles [10][11] Group 3: Sector Insights - The internal demand sector is expected to have significant upside potential if stronger consumer support policies are introduced, although broad opportunities may be limited due to mixed macro data and slowing population growth [5][11] - Specific sectors like travel, leisure services, and experience-based consumption may see recovery and growth driven by policy support [5][11] - The hardware segment of the AI industry, particularly in memory and high-end manufacturing, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to its stable competitive landscape and high demand [7][8] Group 4: Risk Management - The investment philosophy includes a focus on safety margins and avoiding excessive concentration in single themes, with a preference for companies that demonstrate clear advantages in both valuation and earnings [10][11] - The approach to risk control involves monitoring individual stock valuations and overall portfolio beta exposure, adjusting positions based on macroeconomic and policy changes [11][12] - The emphasis is on identifying undervalued companies with long-term competitive advantages that may be overlooked or mispriced in the current market environment [12]