Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-30 11:39Core Viewpoint - The rare drop in the non-ferrous metal sector on January 30, with a significant decline in the popular ETF, reflects market reactions to external and internal factors, while simultaneously showing a trend of increased investment despite falling prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 30, the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a notable drop, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), falling to a low of 9.98% before closing down 9.61% [1][3]. - Despite the decline, the ETF saw a net subscription of 156 million units, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [1][3]. - Among the 59 constituent stocks, 20 stocks, including Shandong Gold and China Aluminum, hit the daily limit down, while Hunan Gold achieved a five-day consecutive rise with a net inflow of 6.893 billion yuan, topping the A-share capital inflow list [1][3]. Group 2: Reasons for Market Drop - External factors include the anticipated appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, which is expected to end the liquidity boom, prompting profit-taking before the announcement [3][11]. - Internal factors involve regulatory tightening, with exchanges raising margin requirements and price limits for gold, silver, and tin, forcing high-leverage speculative funds to liquidate positions before the holiday [3][11]. - On the industrial side, pre-holiday inventory replenishment fell short, and there was a surge in shipments from lithium mines in Australia and South America, leading to a price drop for lithium carbonate [3][11]. Group 3: Reasons for Increased Investment - External factors supporting increased investment include Trump's endorsement of Kevin Warsh, suggesting a lower probability of aggressive rate hikes under his leadership [4][13]. - The fundamental drivers for non-ferrous metal prices remain unchanged, with ongoing global monetary easing and the strategic value of metals needed for emerging industries like AI and military applications [4][13]. - Earnings forecasts for non-ferrous metal stocks are generally positive, with many companies expected to report favorable results for 2025 [4][13]. - Guosheng Securities predicts that the combination of supply-demand mismatch, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades will sustain high profitability in the non-ferrous sector for the next 3-5 years [4][13].