欧洲经济录得温和增长，美元走弱隐现威胁

Economic Growth - The European economy recorded moderate growth at the end of last year, overcoming turmoil caused by U.S. tariffs [1][4] - In the last three months of 2025, the economy of the 21 Eurozone countries grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining the same growth rate as the third quarter; year-on-year growth was 1.3% compared to Q4 2024 [1][4] Trade and Tariffs - Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs, raising concerns about a potential recession in Europe, but the current moderate growth has dispelled those fears [1][5] - A subsequent agreement set a tariff cap of 15% on EU goods, providing some certainty for businesses to continue operations and planning [5] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - After a significant inflation surge from 2022 to 2023, the inflation rate in Europe fell to 1.9% in December, coupled with rising wage levels, which improved consumer purchasing power and willingness to spend [2][5] Currency Exchange Rates - The latest threat to the European economy is the significant depreciation of the dollar against the euro, which has decreased the price competitiveness of European goods in key overseas markets [2][5] - Over the past 12 months, the euro has appreciated by 14.4% against the dollar, with the exchange rate reported at 1.19 on January 30 [2][5] Germany's Economic Performance - Germany's economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, marking its best quarterly performance in three years, but still faces serious short-term and long-term challenges [3][6] - The German economy is expected to grow by 0.2% year-on-year in 2025, ending two consecutive years of output decline [3][6] - The German government has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast down from 1.3% to 1% [6] Challenges Facing Germany - Germany is grappling with several issues, including high energy prices due to the loss of Russian gas supplies, a shortage of skilled workers, increased competition from China in key export sectors, insufficient investment in growth-oriented infrastructure, and cumbersome administrative procedures [3][6] EU Economic Overview - The overall economy of the EU, which includes 27 member states, grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025 and by 1.4% year-on-year compared to Q4 2024 [3][6] - Bulgaria officially joined the Eurozone in January, increasing the number of Eurozone member countries to 21 [6]