特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储，美元回吐涨幅、美债跌幅收窄

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a choice perceived as relatively hawkish by the market, leading to a narrowing of the dollar's gains and a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's confirmation of Warsh's nomination, the Bloomberg Dollar Index's gain was reduced to 0.2%, while U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield slightly declining and the 30-year yield increasing by 3 basis points [1][4]. - The probability of Warsh becoming the Federal Reserve Chairman has surpassed 90%, as indicated by betting markets, particularly after the decline in support for BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [2][5]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh is viewed as a long-time inflation hawk, having previously emphasized the risks of rising prices during the financial crisis, but he has recently advocated for lower borrowing costs, aligning with Trump's stance, which raises questions about his future policy direction [1][4]. - Analysts suggest that despite Warsh's hawkish reputation, he may seek to justify a more dovish policy stance, with futures markets still pricing in two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [2][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Warsh has consistently opposed maintaining a large Federal Reserve balance sheet, which is currently at $6.6 trillion, raising concerns about how he would manage this asset size and whether the Fed should continue purchasing short-term Treasuries or withdraw more market liquidity [6][8]. - The market is particularly focused on how Warsh's nomination might influence the Fed's approach to its balance sheet and overall monetary policy, especially in light of the current fiscal challenges and political pressures on the central bank [8]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The market is experiencing anxiety over the unpredictability of U.S. policy-making, significant fiscal deficits, and political interference in central bank policies, making Warsh's traditionalist approach a timely signal for investors [7][8]. - The recent trend of dollar depreciation, driven by bets on long-term declines in purchasing power, has led to the Bloomberg Dollar Index hitting a near four-year low, with Warsh's nomination potentially serving as a catalyst for a rebound in the dollar [8][9].