Can AMAT Break ASML's Monopoly?

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) has seen its stock price nearly triple in six months, leading to a significant re-evaluation of its market position, now being compared to ASML, the only true monopoly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment [2][3]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - AMAT's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 34x, nearly double its 10-year median of approximately 18x, and approaching ASML's multiple of over 45x [2]. - The market is assigning AMAT valuations akin to scarcity, despite its business being essential but not irreplaceable [3][5]. - AMAT's revenue breakdown shows that Foundry/Logic accounts for 72%, DRAM for 18%, and Flash for 10%, with key clients including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [5]. Group 2: Business Complexity and Growth Drivers - The increasing complexity of semiconductor manufacturing is a key growth driver, with AMAT estimating that each 100,000 wafer starts at a leading-edge GAA node can yield $1 billion in additional revenue [6]. - AMAT's Centura Sculpta tool minimizes EUV double patterning, saving clients $250 million in capital expenditures for every 100,000 wafer starts, while also reducing water and energy consumption by 20% [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Revenue Impact - Approximately 35% of AMAT's revenue comes from China, and new U.S. export restrictions are expected to create a revenue headwind of $600 million in fiscal 2026 [9]. - In contrast, ASML's exposure to China is mitigated, as it has not delivered EUV tools to China for several years, representing a mid-teens percentage of its revenue [10]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - AMAT reported $28.37 billion in FY2025 revenue, with expected growth driven by the transition to 2nm GAA and HBM ramps, projected to add roughly $1.13 billion in incremental revenue [11]. - By 2028, revenue could increase by approximately $4.8 billion, suggesting a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2026 [12]. - The last twelve months' free cash flow was around $5.73 billion, with projections to reach approximately $6.5 billion by 2027 [12]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - AMAT is becoming increasingly vital in the AI era but remains susceptible to cycles, competition, and geopolitical influences [13]. - Positive factors include GAA complexity, demand for HBM/AI, and leadership in advanced packaging, while negative factors involve the impact on China services and capital expenditure volatility [14].