MS or JEF: Which Stock to Bet on Amid Surge in Deal-making and IPOs?

Core Viewpoint - Investment banks are regaining prominence as deal-making and IPO activities increase, with Morgan Stanley and Jefferies Financial Group presenting different investment opportunities [2][3]. Morgan Stanley - Morgan Stanley's investment banking (IB) fees increased by 23% in 2025 and 35% in 2024, following a decline in 2023 and 2022, indicating a strong recovery in the IB sector [3][9]. - The company has a robust trading business that has performed well due to market volatility and client activity, which is expected to continue growing [4]. - A partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has strengthened Morgan Stanley's position in Japan, with Asia region revenues rising 23% year-over-year to $9.42 billion in 2025 [5]. - Morgan Stanley has diversified its revenue streams, with wealth and asset management contributing nearly 54% to total net revenues in 2025, up from 26% in 2010 [6]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth of 6% and 4.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with earnings expected to grow by 8.4% and 7.1% in the same years [18]. Jefferies Financial Group - Jefferies' total IB fees rose by 10% in fiscal 2025 and 52% in fiscal 2024, indicating a recovery after previous declines [7]. - The company is benefiting from strategic partnerships, including a significant stake from Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which is expected to increase to 20% [9][10]. - Jefferies' revenue growth estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 are 16.5% and 16.3%, respectively, with earnings expected to jump by 50.3% and 38.1% [20]. Comparative Analysis - Morgan Stanley shares have increased by 31.8% over the past year, while Jefferies shares have decreased by 20.4%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Morgan Stanley [11][14]. - In terms of valuation, Jefferies is trading at a forward P/E of 13.03X, while Morgan Stanley's forward P/E is 16.46X, suggesting Jefferies is less expensive [14][16]. - Morgan Stanley's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.92%, significantly higher than Jefferies' 7.27%, reflecting more efficient use of shareholder funds [16]. - Morgan Stanley's diversified revenue model and strong trading franchise position it as a more resilient investment compared to Jefferies, which is primarily focused on investment banking [22][23].