Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-30 17:26Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales in 2026, expecting a 133% increase this year to 28,000 units, doubling the previous estimate of 14,000 units [1] - The humanoid robot sales in China are projected to grow exponentially, from approximately 12,000 units in 2024 to 262,000 units by 2030, and reaching 2.6 million units by 2035 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The production cost of robots is expected to decline, lowering the purchase threshold for humanoid robots, with raw material costs in China projected to decrease by 16% this year [3] - By 2035, global prices for related components are expected to drop by about 70%, leading to significant price reductions for humanoid robots [3] - The average price of humanoid robots in middle and low-income countries, including China, is expected to fall from $50,000 in 2024 to approximately $21,000 by 2050 [3] - In developed countries like the U.S., the average price is projected to decrease from $200,000 to $75,000 in the same timeframe [3] - By 2036, the number of humanoid robots in use globally is expected to reach 25.4 million, accounting for 2% of the overall robot market, with this share increasing to 13% by 2040 and 42% by 2044 [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The humanoid robot industry in China is entering a phase of market promotion, with several manufacturers collaborating with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala to showcase their products [4][5] - The participation of multiple robot manufacturers in the Spring Festival Gala reflects three key industry trends: focus on consumer-level applications, reaching the C-end market, and transitioning from experimental technology to commercial deployment [7] - A report by IDC indicates that the humanoid robot market will experience explosive growth in 2025, with an estimated shipment of 18,000 units and sales revenue of approximately $440 million, marking a year-on-year increase of about 508% [7] - Chinese manufacturers are leading the market, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushutech being significant players in terms of shipment volume [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Since 2015, when China prioritized robotics as one of its top ten key industries, the sector has seen rapid development, with over 150 humanoid robot companies currently operating [8] - Government support has been crucial, with policies aimed at enhancing R&D and promoting the integration of robots into economic and social frameworks [8] - China possesses unique advantages in manufacturing application scenarios and data collection capabilities, which are critical for the development of embodied intelligence [9] - Elon Musk has acknowledged that China's humanoid robot sector represents the most formidable competition for Tesla, highlighting China's strengths in large-scale manufacturing and AI technology [9]