Comcast Broadband Losses Deepen As Competition Intensifies

Core View - Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi maintains a Neutral/Sector Perform rating on Comcast Corp, noting that the fourth-quarter results met expectations but did not indicate a clear turnaround [1] Broadband Competition - Intense competition from fiber providers and fixed wireless access is pressuring Comcast's broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) and EBITDA [2] - The company's strategy to avoid price hikes and focus on lower-priced plans is negatively impacting broadband ARPU, a trend expected to worsen before improvement [2][3] Subscriber Trends - Comcast lost 181,000 broadband subscribers in the quarter, a decline steeper than the previous year, as it shifts to a simplified pricing model that includes a free wireless line and a five-year price guarantee [3] - While this strategy has reduced voluntary churn and increased adoption of higher speeds, it has also led to increased financial strain [4] Financial Performance - Broadband ARPU growth was modest at 1% year-over-year, contributing to a 4% year-over-year drop in Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA due to higher customer experience investments and marketing costs [4] Future Outlook - Yaghi forecasts that ARPU may turn negative and EBITDA pressure will peak around the second quarter of 2026, as Comcast continues to avoid price increases and expand free wireless offers [5] - A potential recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2026, coinciding with the transition from the new pricing model and the conversion of free wireless lines into paying customers [5] Content and Parks Performance - EBITDA in Studios and Media negatively impacted results, facing tough year-over-year comparisons and increased marketing spending, while Media EBITDA declined due to costs associated with newly acquired NBA rights [6] - Strong performance in Theme Parks, driven by higher attendance and guest spending, partially offset these headwinds [6] 2026 Projections - For 2026, Theme Parks are expected to remain a bright spot, with improvements anticipated at Peacock as the streaming platform scales and monetization improves [7] - Projected revenue for 2026 is $125.41 billion, with an expected EPS of $3.72 [7]