Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-30 21:01Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices recovering significantly since mid-2025, leading to optimistic forecasts for the performance of lithium mining companies in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Lithium carbonate prices have increased from 70,000 yuan/ton to around 170,000 yuan/ton since mid-2025, indicating a strong recovery [1]. - The market is characterized by tight supply and high demand expectations, with many lithium mining companies anticipating a significant improvement in their 2025 performance [1][2]. - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are expected, with analysts predicting a wide range of price movements in the short term due to increased inventory levels among traders and strong demand from downstream markets [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain robust, particularly driven by the strong growth in energy storage battery requirements [2]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is anticipated to bring forward market demand to 2027, while national policies are promoting energy storage as a key focus area [2]. - By the end of 2025, new energy storage installations in China are projected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in demand [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Several lithium companies, including Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, expect to turn losses into profits in 2025, with projected net profits of 369 million to 553 million yuan and 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Yahua Group anticipates a substantial increase in product sales in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions and operational efficiencies [3]. - The overall order situation for many industry players, especially leading companies, remains strong, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [3].