Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-30 21:01Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - As of January 30, 2025, 21 listed securities firms have reported positive earnings forecasts, indicating overall growth in the industry [1]. - Major firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan are solidifying their market leadership, with CITIC Securities projected to achieve a net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan, and Guotai Junan expecting a net profit growth rate of over 100% [1][2]. Group 2: Performance of Major Firms - CITIC Securities is the only firm expected to exceed 70 billion yuan in revenue, with a projected revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, and a net profit of 30.05 billion yuan, up 38.46% [2]. - Guotai Junan anticipates a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 expecting a net profit between 9.1 billion yuan and 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 3: Performance of Smaller Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 are expected to show significant growth, with a projected net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [2]. -天风证券 is expected to turn profitable with a net profit between 12.5 million yuan and 18.5 million yuan [2]. Group 4: Growth Drivers - The growth in earnings is attributed to the active capital market benefiting wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses [3]. - Firms like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities are capitalizing on market opportunities, with significant growth in brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 5: Investment Value - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe the valuation of securities firms is at a historical low, presenting investment opportunities [4]. - Analysts suggest focusing on firms with strong competitive positions, those with significant earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [4].