Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 30, 2026

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.26% as of January 30, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.87% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.10%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]