Ripple CEO Says Crypto Will Hit All-Time Highs in 2026—So Why Is XRP Still Down 50%?

Core Viewpoint - XRP experienced a significant price rally to $3.65 in July 2025, driven by optimism surrounding the SEC lawsuit and renewed retail interest, but has since fallen to around $1.90, approximately 50% below its peak [1][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Standard Chartered set a target of $8 for XRP, with Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, noting a "massive sea change" in Wall Street's interest that has not yet been reflected in crypto markets [2]. - Garlinghouse emphasized that regulatory progress, particularly with the GENIUS Act and the upcoming CLARITY Act, is crucial for Ripple's long-term outlook, rather than short-term price fluctuations [3]. - Despite Garlinghouse's bullish outlook for the broader crypto market to reach all-time highs in 2026, XRP's price has not followed suit due to various market dynamics [4][7]. Group 2: Factors Affecting XRP Price - Post-lawsuit profit-taking has led to increased selling pressure, as many early investors sold their holdings after the SEC settlement, contributing to a supply overhang [11][8]. - Capital rotation towards Bitcoin and Ethereum has left payment tokens like XRP behind, as speculative interest has shifted to other narratives such as DeFi and AI [13]. - ETF inflows for XRP have been below expectations, with only $1.3 billion attracted since November 2025, which is significantly lower compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum products [14][15]. - Macro conditions, including high interest rates, have suppressed risk appetite, leading investors to favor yield-bearing assets over payment-focused tokens like XRP [16]. Group 3: Price Outlook Scenarios - The bullish case for XRP suggests a potential rally to $3.50-$5.00 if ETF inflows exceed $3 billion and the CLARITY Act is passed, alongside increased institutional adoption [22]. - The base case predicts stabilization between $2.50 and $3.50 with moderate ETF inflows and gradual regulatory improvements [23]. - The bearish case indicates a potential decline to $1.50-$2.00 if ETF outflows continue and macroeconomic headwinds persist, with weak network activity further suppressing momentum [25]. Group 4: Current Market Dynamics - XRP remains approximately 50% below its July 2025 cycle high due to profit-taking, capital rotation, and unmet ETF demand, despite Wall Street's optimistic target of $8 by year-end [26]. - For XRP to recover, it requires significant ETF inflows, the passing of the CLARITY Act, and improved macro conditions, otherwise, it is likely to consolidate between $1.50 and $2.50 [27].