Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in prices, while inventory levels are rising, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the main methanol futures contract closed at 2320 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of 2.20% [1]. - The weekly trading range for methanol futures was between 2308 CNY/ton and 2394 CNY/ton, with a low of 2286 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of January 29, 2026, methanol inventory at East China ports increased to 595,800 tons from 587,900 tons on January 22, 2026, reflecting a rise of 7900 tons [2]. - Environmental inspections in North and Northwest China have led to production cuts of 10%-15% for coal-based methanol plants, while natural gas-based plants prioritize residential gas supply, resulting in a temporary supply contraction [2]. Group 3: Export and Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation confirmed that the methanol export tax rebate rate will remain at 13%, with an export target of 3.2 million tons for 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [2]. - The export target for 2026 is set to increase by 20% year-on-year, aimed at alleviating domestic inventory pressure [2]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures noted that high domestic methanol production is met with declining downstream demand, leading to increased port inventories and weaker procurement in Jiangsu [4]. - Ruida Futures reported that recent maintenance and production cuts have resulted in a smaller loss of capacity compared to the recovery of production, leading to an overall increase in output [4]. - The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) operating rates have decreased, with several plants remaining offline, although there is an expectation of slight increases in MTO industry operations in the near term [4].
甲醇港口库存高位上升 短线盘面暂以观望为主
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-31 01:29