供大于求未有明显改善 纯碱期现后续仍将承压

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market shows signs of weakness, with fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, while external factors may influence future trends [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1204 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 27,604 contracts [1]. - During the week of January 26-30, the soda ash futures opened at 1197 CNY/ton, peaked at 1229 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 1178 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.35% [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 29, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% from the previous Monday [2]. - On January 30, the Jinfu Yuan soda ash facility in Hunan resumed operations, with light-grade soda ash priced at 1200 CNY/ton ex-factory; the Kunshan Jinguang facility in Jiangsu reduced its load, pricing light-grade at 1280 CNY/ton, while heavy-grade was not quoted; the Jingshen Chemical facility in Jiangsu reduced output due to maintenance, maintaining a stable price of 1270 CNY/ton for light-grade [2]. Group 3: Sales and Demand - For the week of January 29, 2026, soda ash shipments from Chinese enterprises totaled 760,100 tons, reflecting a decrease of 7.94% week-on-week, with an overall shipment rate of 97.06% [3]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, with macroeconomic and commodity market sentiment providing some support for futures prices; however, there is no sustained upward momentum expected, and pre-holiday inventory accumulation is anticipated to exert pressure on prices [5]. - Zhengxin Futures noted that while short-term improvements in commodity sentiment and pre-holiday inventory expectations led to a rebound in soda ash prices, overall downstream inventory remains high, and upward pressure from upstream during the holiday may limit sustained market drivers; a cautious approach is recommended [5].