商业秘密｜车厘子跌价2成、草莓和橙价腰斩，揭水果集体降价真相

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in fruit prices in Shanghai's markets reflects a broader trend in the fruit industry, driven by both supply chain upgrades and changes in consumer demand, with a notable shift towards domestic fruit production as a future trend [1][4][9]. Price Trends - Prices for popular fruits such as cherries and strawberries have dropped significantly, with cherries seeing a price reduction of over 20% and strawberries experiencing a price drop of around 50% within a month [4][5]. - Specific price data shows that imported cherries fell from 57 yuan per kilogram in January 2025 to 45 yuan in January 2026, while strawberries dropped from 43 yuan to 35.5 yuan per kilogram in the same period [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall fruit prices have decreased by 20% to 30% due to an oversupply in the market, particularly for imported fruits like cherries, which have seen increased imports leading to lower prices [9][10]. - The production of domestic fruits such as sugar oranges and strawberries has increased, with sugar orange production reaching 6.5 million tons in 2025, a 25% increase year-on-year [9][10]. Market Competition - The simultaneous harvest of various fruits has intensified competition, leading to price wars, especially among lower-quality fruits [11][12]. - The rise of e-commerce and improved supply chain logistics has reduced costs and allowed for more competitive pricing at the retail level [11][12]. Impact on Producers - The decline in prices has adversely affected upstream fruit growers, with some experiencing a drop in purchase prices by 40% to 50%, marking the lowest in 20 years for certain varieties [13][14]. - The overall price for blueberries has decreased by about 20% compared to the previous year, with market prices continuing to decline [13][14]. Future Trends - The fruit market is expected to see a short-term stabilization due to seasonal demand, but long-term trends indicate a continued decline in prices, with a focus on quality differentiation [16][17]. - The industry is moving towards a model where high-quality domestic fruits will gain prominence, and there will be a shift towards more specialized and diversified consumption scenarios [17][18].