华泰宏观：凯文·沃什接任联储主席的变与不变？

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, marking a significant shift in the leadership of the Fed since the market has seen fluctuating expectations regarding the Fed Chair since 2026 [1][11] Group 1: Potential Changes Under Warsh's Leadership - The Fed's policy direction may shift, with Warsh likely to advocate for a combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" [2][12] - Warsh believes that AI-driven productivity improvements will suppress inflation, and a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could further alleviate inflationary pressures, creating room for rate cuts [2][12] - Warsh has been critical of the Fed's large balance sheet, arguing it distorts the market and affects fiscal sustainability, and he aims to reduce the balance sheet more aggressively and halt MBS purchases [2][12] Group 2: Communication and Relationship with the White House - Warsh's appointment could improve the historically tense relationship between the White House and the Fed, as he has close ties to the Trump family, which may facilitate smoother communication [2][12] - The current administration's intervention in Fed matters has reached unprecedented levels, with Trump exerting pressure on Powell and taking actions against Fed officials, which Warsh's leadership may help mitigate [2][12] Group 3: Long-term Policy Framework - The Trump administration's supportive stance towards capital markets and overall liquidity is expected to remain, with a relatively accommodative monetary policy stance [3][13] - Warsh has criticized the Fed's asymmetric policy approach, advocating for a more balanced response to economic conditions, and has introduced the concept of "economic imprinting," which suggests that past interventions may weaken the economy's self-correcting abilities [4][14] - Despite potential changes, the erosion of the Fed's independence and the declining intrinsic value of the dollar may continue, as the U.S. faces persistent fiscal challenges and rising debt levels [5][15] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Allocation - Warsh's nomination has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, causing adjustments in risk assets, but long-term asset allocation should remain anchored in consistent logic [6][16] - The ongoing geopolitical shifts and deteriorating fiscal sustainability are expected to influence the pricing of scarce physical assets and core equity assets, necessitating adjustments in valuation frameworks [6][17]