This Stock Faces Big Risks, but Also Big Potential Upside

Core Viewpoint - The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market presents significant upside potential, particularly for Joby Aviation, but it also carries substantial risks that need to be addressed before investment decisions are made [1]. Company Overview - Joby Aviation aims to create a vertically integrated transportation services company, focusing on making, owning, and operating its aircraft, unlike Archer Aviation, which plans to sell eVTOL aircraft to third parties [2]. - Joby Aviation's current market capitalization is $9.6 billion, with a current stock price of $10.57, and it has experienced a gross margin of -11490.90% [3]. Certification and Technology - Joby is leading in the certification process, developing its own technology and components, while Archer relies on established companies for technology [4]. - Joby is in the final stage of FAA certification, where pilots test the aircraft, but there is no guarantee of receiving approval [5]. Financial Considerations - Joby needs to invest significantly in manufacturing capacity, vertiports, and operational fleet development before generating revenue from air taxis [7]. - Wall Street consensus suggests that Joby will need to raise cash in 2026, likely through equity, as it is projected to burn through $646 million in 2026, starting the year with only $710 million in net cash [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Joby faces long-term threats from Boeing's subsidiary, Wisk, which is developing autonomous eVTOLs that could undercut Joby on pricing due to not requiring a pilot [10]. - Despite the risks, Joby has strong partnerships with Delta Air Lines, Uber, and Toyota, which enhance its manufacturing capabilities and market position [11]. Future Outlook - Joby is likely to have a first-mover advantage over Wisk, as autonomous eVTOLs face greater technical, regulatory, and cost challenges [12]. - The vertically integrated business model of Joby presents significant upside potential, despite the inherent risks [12].