Down 47%, Is Oracle a No-Brainer Buy Now That It Owns a Stake in TikTok?

Core Viewpoint - Oracle is positioned as a high-risk, high-potential-reward stock in the artificial intelligence sector, particularly following the announcement of a joint venture with TikTok for U.S. data security [1]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - Oracle, along with Silver Lake and MGX, holds a 15% equity stake in the TikTok U.S. Data Security Joint Venture, with ByteDance retaining 19.9% [2]. - The joint venture is valued at approximately $14 billion, making Oracle's stake worth around $2.1 billion, which is relatively small compared to Oracle's market cap of about $500 billion [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - Oracle's stock has seen a decline of over 47% from its 52-week high, indicating that the TikTok deal alone may not be sufficient to reverse this trend [3]. - The company's financials are currently under pressure, with negative free cash flow and increasing debt, attributed to a significant data center buildout [9]. - Despite these challenges, Oracle's capital expenditures are expected to decline in the coming years, potentially leading to increased cash flow as new data centers begin generating revenue [10]. Group 3: AI Investments and Market Valuation - Oracle's investment strategy is heavily focused on artificial intelligence, particularly through its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which is seen as a critical component of its future growth [5]. - The stock is trading at 25 times analysts' earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 23.2 times for fiscal 2027, suggesting that many risks are already reflected in its share price [11]. - The company is viewed as a strong buy for risk-tolerant investors, although there is caution regarding potential project delays or financial strains [12].