生意社：2025年聚合氯化铝走势分析及2026年展望

Core Viewpoint - The domestic solid polyaluminum chloride market experienced a price decline of 3.75% in 2025, with the average price dropping from 1778.33 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 1711.67 CNY/ton by year-end [1][3]. Price Trends - The highest price for polyaluminum chloride was recorded at 1778.33 CNY/ton on January 1, while the lowest was 1695.00 CNY/ton on September 21, resulting in a maximum fluctuation of 4.69% throughout the year [1][3]. - From February to July, prices showed a stepwise decline, reaching a low of 1695 CNY/ton by July 20, marking a cumulative drop of 4.69% from the beginning of the year [3]. Market Conditions - In the second half of the year, prices stabilized at the low point of 1695 CNY/ton during August and September. After October, prices slightly rebounded to 1711.67 CNY/ton due to support from raw material costs and a marginal recovery in downstream demand [3]. Supply Side - The production capacity of polyaluminum chloride is primarily concentrated in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces, with Henan accounting for over 40% of the national capacity. The average industry capacity utilization rate was around 55%-60%, with smaller manufacturers facing challenges leading to utilization rates below 40% [6]. Demand Side - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year" water ecological environment protection plan is expected to significantly boost demand in the water treatment sector, particularly through projects like urban sewage treatment upgrades and black-odor water body remediation [6]. - As domestic consumption recovers and overseas orders return, industries such as paper and dyeing are anticipated to increase their operational rates, thereby driving up the demand for polyaluminum chloride [6]. Future Outlook - The domestic polyaluminum chloride market is projected to experience a weak balance with a fluctuating recovery pattern in 2026, with prices expected to remain within the current low range but with limited upward potential compared to the second half of 2025 [4][6].