Europe sees modest growth, but the weaker US dollar looms as a threat

Economic Growth - The European economy recorded modest growth of 0.3% in the last quarter of 2025, matching the previous quarter's figure, with a year-over-year growth of 1.3% compared to Q4 2024 [1] - Germany's economy showed improved growth at 0.3% in the quarter, marking its best quarterly performance in three years, although it still faces significant short- and long-term challenges [8] Tariff Impact - Moderate growth has persisted despite earlier recession fears linked to U.S. President Trump's threats to raise tariffs, which were ultimately capped at 15% on EU goods [2] - The assurance from the tariff deal allowed businesses to plan ahead, although the situation was complicated by subsequent threats from Trump regarding higher tariffs on EU member countries [3] Consumer Behavior - European services businesses have shown moderate growth, with lower inflation at 1.9% in December and rising wages contributing to increased consumer purchasing power and willingness to spend [4] Currency Fluctuations - The dollar has weakened significantly, falling 14.4% against the euro in the past year, which could make European exports less competitive in key markets [6][5] - Analysts suggest that continued dollar weakness may prompt the European Central Bank to consider cutting interest rates later this year to stimulate growth [7]