TD Cowen Sees a Slower Recovery Path Taking Shape at Procter & Gamble (PG)

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (PG) is experiencing a slower recovery path, with analysts expecting subdued growth in the coming years due to various market pressures [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the three months ended December 31, P&G reported net sales of approximately $22.21 billion, which is a 1% year-over-year increase but slightly below the expected $22.28 billion [6]. - Adjusted profit exceeded forecasts, driven by strong demand for higher-end haircare and beauty products [3]. - Core gross margin has declined for five consecutive quarters, influenced by tariffs and investments in diverse pack sizes for cost-conscious consumers [6]. Market Conditions - The US government shutdown negatively impacted P&G's largest market, leading to sales declines across categories due to delayed food assistance payments affecting lower-income households [4]. - Sales volumes decreased in three of P&G's five reported categories, with only beauty showing growth as consumers continue to prioritize self-care [5]. - Overall sales volumes were significantly below the typical US growth range of 3% to 4% across categories [5]. Analyst Sentiment - TD Cowen downgraded P&G from Buy to Hold, raising the price target to $156 from $150, citing a likely prolonged turnaround period [2]. - Analysts predict organic sales growth to remain around 2% over the next two years, with limited pricing power and ongoing pressure on the Hispanic consumer [2].