I Asked ChatGPT What Will Happen To Mortgage Rates in 2026 — Here’s the Prediction

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are expected to drift lower through 2026, but a dramatic decline is not anticipated [1] Current Rates - As of January 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is between 6.09% and 6.19%, which is near a three-year low but still significantly higher than rates in the early 2020s [2] 2026 Forecast - The average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to be between 6.0% and 6.3% for 2026, with some optimistic projections suggesting rates could dip below 6% temporarily [3][4] Agency Predictions - Fannie Mae predicts rates will end 2026 around 5.9%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts closer to 6.4%. Other analysts estimate rates between 6.1% and 6.3%, indicating uncertainty in economic factors [4] Influencing Factors - Three main factors are influencing mortgage rate predictions: [5] - Federal Reserve Policy: Rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 have helped lower long-term rates, and if the Fed maintains or cuts rates in 2026, it could support small declines in mortgage costs. However, the 10-year Treasury bond yields remain high compared to pandemic lows [6] - Inflation and Economic Conditions: Moderating inflation could lead to lower rates, but strong job data or persistent inflation may keep rates higher. Economic surprises could quickly shift rate predictions [7]