数据点评 | 1月PMI：春节效应前置（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [1][6][7] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the growth threshold, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers for the Spring Festival [1][7] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [4][38] - The purchasing index dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, reflecting a weaker supply side due to the early return of workers [2][16] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI down 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down 1 percentage point to 47.9% [2][22] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the growth threshold [2][22] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed a decline, dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, primarily due to a significant decrease in the construction sector, which fell by 4 percentage points to 48.8% [4][43] - The service sector PMI remained relatively resilient, only decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with certain areas like railway transport showing strong performance [3][25] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may distort PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by consumer demand and service sector policies [3][32] - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction, the average PMI over the next two months is anticipated to reflect ongoing economic recovery [3][32]