数据点评 | 财政金融协同，蓄力“开门红”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2025 show a significant divergence, indicating a potential shift in policy focus towards "fiscal and financial coordination" [1][4][5] Revenue Summary - In December 2025, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, marking a decline of 13.3 percentage points from November, the lowest level of the year [1][3][5] - General fiscal revenue fell sharply by 25% year-on-year, influenced partly by a high base effect from the same period in 2024 [9][22] - Non-tax revenue saw a drastic decline of 47.9%, becoming the largest drag on overall revenue, likely due to stricter management regulations implemented in the second half of the year [9][22] - Government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, although the decline was less severe than in previous months, with land transfer revenue showing a slight improvement [9][17] Expenditure Summary - Despite revenue pressures, broad fiscal expenditure saw a smaller decline of 0.7% year-on-year in December, with a narrowing drop of 1 percentage point from November [2][3][31] - General fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a nearly 2 percentage point reduction in the decline compared to November [31] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.5%, indicating a positive growth trend despite a slight slowdown from previous months [11][39] - Significant increases were noted in urban and rural community expenditures, which rose by 12.8%, reflecting a shift towards infrastructure and technological investments [11][33] Policy Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 may see a stronger reliance on fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate economic growth, with a focus on expanding interest subsidies and new infrastructure investments [2][13] - The upcoming fiscal policy is expected to emphasize increased total spending, with a focus on consumption and livelihood improvements, while maintaining necessary levels of deficit and debt [14]