The Saturday Spread: Letting the Smart Money Act as an Early Warning Sign

Group 1: Newmont Corporation (NEM) - The quantitative analysis of NEM stock indicates a long streak of upside, but a second-order inductive analysis suggests potential downside risks [3][6] - The volatility skew for NEM options shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for both calls and puts, indicating a hedged bullish sentiment among traders [4][5] - Despite optimism, the complex transactions suggest that traders are not fully exposed to NEM stock, hinting at cautious positioning [4][5] Group 2: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - RIVN stock has dropped over 25% since the start of the year, attracting interest from contrarian investors [7] - The volatility skew for RIVN options shows a significant upward curve in put IV at lower strike prices, indicating demand for downside protection [8] - The analysis suggests a potential price range for RIVN stock between $15 and $16 over the next 10 weeks, with a recommended bull call spread strategy [10][11] Group 3: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) - TEVA stock has gained over 9% since January and approximately 121% over the past six months, but the trade is becoming overcrowded [12][13] - The volatility skew for TEVA options indicates elevated put IV at lower strike prices, signaling a predominant sentiment for downside insurance among traders [14][15] - The analysis predicts a likely price range for TEVA stock between $30 and $36 over the next 10 weeks, with a suggested bear put spread strategy [16][17]