Brookdale Senior Living Investor Day: 2026 EBITDA guide tops $500M as occupancy climbs back toward 85%

Core Insights - Brookdale Senior Living projects RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $502 million to $516 million, and anticipates mid-teen annualized growth in adjusted EBITDA through 2028 [1][6][5] Financial Performance - In 2025, Brookdale reported adjusted EBITDA of $458 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and achieved adjusted free cash flow positivity for the first time since the pandemic [2][3] - The company generated over $3 billion in revenue in 2025, with consolidated RevPAR increasing by 5.7% due to occupancy gains and pricing increases [2][3] Occupancy and Demographics - Same-community occupancy ended 2025 at a weighted average of 83.5%, with a year-end spot occupancy of 84.5%, and the company aims to surpass pre-COVID occupancy levels in 2026 [3][6] - The U.S. population aged 80 and older is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR for the next 15 years, driving demand for senior housing [9][10] Operating Model and Structure - Brookdale has restructured into six regions to enhance decision-making and accountability, focusing on local market needs [13][14] - The company is investing in staffing and signature care programs to improve execution and service quality [5][15] Capital Allocation and Growth Strategy - Management emphasizes a holistic approach to capital expenditures, targeting comprehensive upgrades rather than piecemeal repairs [16][18] - Brookdale is exploring targeted acquisitions to enhance its market presence and address capacity needs in specific regions [16][19] Industry Position - Brookdale is the largest operator of senior living communities in the U.S. and the third-largest owner of senior housing real estate, with 75% of its units owned and 94% of revenue derived from private pay sources [7][20]