The Motley Fool·2026-02-01 03:30Core Viewpoint - BigBear.ai's overreliance on government contracts is hindering its growth potential compared to Palantir Technologies, which has successfully diversified into the commercial market [1][12][13]. Group 1: Company Performance - BigBear.ai's stock has appreciated by 142% over the past three years, but it has recently faced challenges due to missed earnings expectations and lowered revenue guidance for 2025, projecting revenue between $125 million and $140 million, down from $158 million in 2024 [3][11]. - Palantir Technologies reported a 63% increase in overall revenue to $1.18 billion, with commercial revenue rising by 73% year over year to $548 million, indicating strong growth in its commercial segment [4][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Palantir has successfully pivoted to focus on corporate customers, increasing its commercial customer count by 49% year over year to 742, which is expected to drive further growth [6][7]. - BigBear.ai has struggled to penetrate the commercial market, relying heavily on government contracts, which makes it vulnerable to changes in government budgets and contract timing [10][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - BigBear.ai trades at a lower valuation of 12.6 times sales compared to Palantir's 111 times sales, but this lower valuation is attributed to its limited growth prospects [14]. - The AI software platform market is projected to grow from $26 billion to $88 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%, and Palantir is positioned to capture a larger share of this market [14][15].