Peter Schiff predicted the 2008 housing crisis, and he’s warning of a ‘housing emergency’. Is he right this time?

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market is facing potential challenges, with tighter lending standards and a significant shortage of homes contributing to elevated prices, despite rising mortgage rates [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Lending standards are currently tighter than during the subprime era, resulting in less widespread negative equity among homeowners [1]. - Zillow estimates a shortage of approximately 4.7 million homes in the U.S., which has helped maintain high housing prices [1]. - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has increased from below 3% to over 6.1% in recent years, indicating a significant rise in borrowing costs [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index has seen a more than 43% increase in single-family home prices over the past five years [2]. - Despite rising mortgage rates, home prices have not adjusted downward to align with the higher borrowing costs, creating a disconnect in the market [3]. Group 3: Homeowner Behavior - Many homeowners are reluctant to sell due to having locked in ultra-low mortgage rates, which limits the inventory of homes available for sale [4]. - There is a concern that if homeowners are forced to sell at reduced prices, they may not be able to repay their mortgages, potentially leading to a cascading effect in the market [5]. Group 4: Sales Data - According to December 2025 data from the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales decreased by 3% year-over-year and fell by 9.3% since November, suggesting a lack of inventory and limited options for consumers [6]. Group 5: Rental Market Insights - Rents are consistently increasing each year, reflecting broader cost-of-living pressures and indicating that real estate can serve as a hedge against inflation [8]. - The multifamily rental market is viewed as a more resilient investment option, potentially less impacted by economic downturns compared to other asset classes [12].