Canadian National Railway Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Core Insights - Canadian National Railway (CNI) reported a solid performance in Q4 2025, with diluted EPS growing 12% year-over-year and adjusted EPS rising 14% [1][3] - The company emphasized improved operating performance, achieving a fourth-quarter operating ratio of 60.1%, which is an improvement of 250 basis points from the previous year [2][4] - CNI's 2026 guidance is framed as volume-driven, with expectations of "flattish" volumes and EPS growth slightly exceeding volume growth, amid a cautious macroeconomic environment [5][10] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 increased by approximately 14% year-over-year, while the full-year EPS growth was around 7% [6][3] - The operating ratio for the full year was reported at 61.7%, improving by 120 basis points compared to 2024 [2][6] - CNI's capital spending for 2026 is set at CAD 2.8 billion, a reduction of CAD 500 million from 2025, aimed at improving cash conversion [12][5] Operational Highlights - The company achieved its best Injury Frequency Ratio in history for both Q4 and the full year, indicating a strong focus on safety [6] - Workload increased by 5% year-over-year in Q4, supported by strong grain demand, with record grain tonnage carried from Western Canada for four consecutive months [6][15] - Train and engine productivity improved by 14% year-over-year in Q4, while locomotive availability reached an all-time high of 92.5% [7][6] Commercial Trends - CNI reported a 4% increase in revenue ton miles (RTMs) and a 3% increase in carloads in Q4, resulting in 2% revenue growth despite a challenging market [8][9] - The company faced headwinds from tariff pressures and trade uncertainty, which negatively impacted full-year revenues by over CAD 350 million [9][10] - Segment performance varied, with intermodal and grain showing strength, while forest products remained under pressure due to weak demand and increased tariffs [15][9] Shareholder Returns - CNI repurchased nearly 15 million shares in 2025 for around CAD 2 billion and announced a 3% dividend increase, marking the 30th consecutive year of dividend growth [13] - A new buyback program for up to 24 million common shares has been authorized, with plans to temporarily increase leverage to support these repurchases [13][5]