Should You Buy Nio Stock While It's Below $5 a Share?​

Core Viewpoint - Nio, despite being an innovative player in the Chinese auto market, faces significant challenges and is viewed as a less attractive investment due to market consolidation and competition from larger manufacturers [1][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese auto market accounted for 30% of global auto sales in 2025, significantly larger than the U.S. market at 18% and other major markets [1]. - In the first half of 2025, new energy vehicles (including electric vehicles and hybrids) made up 50.1% of new car sales in China [2]. Company Performance - Nio has delivered approximately 1 million cars since its inception in 2019, with 326,028 units delivered in 2025, reflecting a growth of 46.9% compared to 2024 [5]. - Despite this growth, Nio has not yet turned a profit, while competitor BYD reported a net profit of $2.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025 [5]. Market Challenges - The Chinese EV market is expected to face difficulties in 2026, with a projected decline in passenger vehicle deliveries due to the end of government subsidies for EVs and rising lithium prices affecting battery costs [8][10]. - EV sales growth in China slowed to just 2% in December 2025, marking the slowest growth in nearly two years [9]. - Nio and other smaller EV manufacturers did not rank among the top 10 manufacturers for sales in December 2025, with the top 10 accounting for 95% of all EV and hybrid sales [9]. Competitive Landscape - The market is consolidating, with the top three manufacturers—BYD, Changan, and Geely—each achieving annual sales of over 1 million to 2 million units, positioning Nio as too small to compete effectively [10].