史诗级暴跌引发流动性踩踏，金银后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices driven by a sudden shift in policy expectations following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced liquidations across various asset classes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices experienced a historic drop, with spot gold falling over 12% and silver plunging more than 35%, marking the largest single-day declines in nearly 40 years [1][2]. - Gold prices fell from a peak of 5598.75 USD/oz to a low of 4682 USD/oz, closing at 4880.03 USD/oz, while COMEX gold futures dropped 8.35% [2]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with prices hitting a high of 121.65 USD/oz before plummeting to 74.28 USD/oz, closing down 26.42% [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Warsh's nomination is perceived as a shift towards a more hawkish stance for the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the previously supportive narrative for gold prices, leading to a significant sell-off [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's approach may disrupt the narrative of central bank independence that had previously supported rising gold prices, resulting in a sharp increase in the dollar index [3]. Group 3: Margin Calls and Liquidation - The article highlights a vicious cycle of forced liquidations triggered by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a downward spiral of selling pressure [4][5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange and domestic exchanges raised margin requirements, exacerbating the liquidity crunch and forcing leveraged positions to liquidate [4][5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - Prior to the crash, the gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's RSI reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a correction [6]. - The implied volatility for gold ETFs surged to 39.67, reflecting a market with low tolerance for error and a need for significant price adjustments to absorb profit-taking and emotional premiums [6]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The article notes that retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at much higher prices [7]. - Retail policies regarding returns on gold products vary, with many retailers not accepting returns once the items are out of their possession, complicating consumer reactions to the price crash [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the sharp decline, gold and silver recorded substantial gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [8]. - Analysts express divided views on the future of gold and silver, with short-term volatility expected due to ongoing forced liquidations, while long-term trends may favor a shift away from the dollar and increased central bank gold purchases [8][9].