Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June

Group 1 - Polymarket users have placed bets totaling tens of millions of dollars on the potential timeline for a US strike on Iran, with current odds favoring a winter or spring strike [1] - Additional millions have been wagered on the potential removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with the odds for an airstrike by June 30 currently at 61 percent [2] - The commercial use of prediction markets has surged, allowing users to fund event contracts using various payment methods including cryptocurrency [2] Group 2 - Despite some traders making significant profits, losses are common, and there have been allegations of manipulation and insider trading on the platform [3] - A specific incident involved a trader placing bids shortly before a surprise raid announced by US President Donald Trump, raising concerns about potential insider trading [3][4] - The increase in betting activity on Polymarket highlights the growing popularity of prediction markets, but allegations of manipulation could undermine the platform's integrity and credibility [4][5]