资金“踩踏式”出逃 国际金银价格暴跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to panic selling triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a significant liquidation of leveraged positions in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On January 31, gold prices fell over 12%, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years, while silver experienced a historic drop of over 36% [2]. - By the end of trading, gold was down 9.25% at $4,880.034 per ounce, and silver was down 26.42% at $85.259 per ounce [2]. - The panic selling was exacerbated by a "snowball" effect from forced liquidations of leveraged positions as prices plummeted [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Kevin Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, which contributed to a stabilization of the dollar index following his nomination [3]. - Market analysts noted that the speculation around the next Federal Reserve Chairman had been affecting precious metal prices for some time [3]. - The market had already shown signs of being overcrowded, with warnings about overbought conditions prior to the price drop [4]. Group 3: Leverage and Market Dynamics - The surge in gold and silver prices led to increased implied volatility, indicating that traders were using options to leverage their positions, which is contrary to sound trading principles [3]. - The high leverage and thin liquidity made the market vulnerable to sharp corrections, with even minor triggers capable of causing significant price swings [3][5]. - Major exchanges have raised margin requirements for precious metal futures, increasing pressure on high-leverage traders [5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, analysts believe that the long-term fundamentals for precious metals remain intact, with macroeconomic risks continuing to accumulate [6]. - The ongoing deleveraging process is expected to attract physical buying after price corrections [6]. - Factors such as geopolitical risks, demand for safe-haven assets, and concerns over global economic stability are expected to support gold prices in the long run [7].