宏利基金李坤元： “四好”原则掘金 聚焦周期共振

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a "good start" in 2026 due to favorable policies and expectations of global liquidity shifts, but structural differentiation remains significant. The focus should be on "good industries, good phases, good companies, and good prices" to capture opportunities in technology growth and cyclical reversals [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework emphasizes a top-down approach, with a strong focus on macroeconomic conditions. The manager conducts quarterly reviews of macro conditions and adjusts positions accordingly, prioritizing risk management during uncertain times [2] - The "Four Good" stock selection principle includes: - Good Industry: Focus on sectors with upward cycles and explosive potential, particularly those nearing market penetration inflection points - Good Phase: Concentrate on segments with upward economic momentum and visible performance growth for at least one year - Good Company: Identify not only leading companies but also hidden champions and potential leaders in niche markets - Good Price: Emphasize reasonable valuations, especially critical during market downturns [2] Sector Opportunities - The macro environment in 2026 is expected to see positive turning points, with a high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a coordinated policy push in China, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets [3] - Key investment areas include: - Technology and advanced manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors, robotics, and commercial aerospace, focusing on sectors with low domestic production rates and significant growth potential - Cyclical industries that may benefit from short-term growth policies, providing stability and potential returns over a two to three-year horizon [3][4] Specific Sectors - The AI industry is anticipated to transition towards application sectors, with significant growth potential in AI computing and applications [3] - The commercial aerospace sector is at a critical growth stage, with long-term investment value, though caution is advised regarding short-term speculative volatility [4] - The renewable energy sector is expected to experience a rebound due to policy support, with a focus on lithium battery supply chains benefiting from storage demand [4] - The chemical industry is projected to have structural investment opportunities, with key indicators to monitor including supply growth, demand conditions, and raw material price trends [5] Investment Strategy - The newly launched fund reflects the investment philosophy of balanced market exposure, with a maximum of 50% allocation to Hong Kong stocks. The strategy includes: - Balanced allocation to reduce volatility - Capitalizing on cyclical reversals - Combining quantitative screening with in-depth research to select leading companies [6] - The goal is to help investors navigate market fluctuations and benefit from long-term industrial upgrades and corporate growth in China [6]