绿证交易活跃度提升 专家提醒别患上“依赖症”

Core Insights - The trading volume of renewable energy green power certificates (green certificates) in China is expected to double in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by improved mechanisms for green power consumption and market demand [1][2] - There is a price differentiation trend among green certificates issued in different years, reflecting varying market expectations [2][3] - The green certificate market is anticipated to remain robust in 2026, with an emphasis on avoiding reliance on certificates to offset carbon emissions [1][4] Trading Activity and Price Differentiation - In 2025, a total of 2.947 billion green certificates were issued, with 1.893 billion being tradable; the total trading volume reached 930 million, a significant increase from 446 million in 2024 [2] - The average trading price for 2025-issued green certificates fluctuated, starting at 4.12 yuan in April, peaking at 8.10 yuan in August, and dropping to 5.15 yuan by December; 2024-issued certificates maintained a price above 2 yuan until December, when it fell to 1.12 yuan [2] - The price differentiation indicates a market preference for newly issued certificates due to declining policy applicability of older certificates [2][3] Benefits to Companies - The active trading of green certificates has become a direct revenue source for renewable energy projects, helping to offset declining electricity prices and enhancing overall project profitability [3] - Inner Mongolia Energy Group reported over 800,000 tradable green certificates issued in 2025, a 330% increase from 2024, generating sales exceeding 16 million yuan [3] - Other companies, such as Huayin Power and Yunnan Energy Investment, have also reported significant revenues from green certificate trading, indicating a growing trend among firms to leverage these certificates for financial gains [3] Market Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The green certificate market is expected to see increased supply and demand in 2026, with a broader range of industries targeted for green power consumption [4] - High energy-consuming companies may face rising procurement costs for green certificates, which could pressure them to accelerate their green transformation efforts [4] - Companies are advised to prioritize optimizing their energy structure and improving energy efficiency rather than relying solely on green certificates for carbon neutrality [4]